Econ 3342 - Business and Economics Forecasting

 

Syllabus

Fall 2019. Section 01I/02I, TR 13:30 - 14:45 PDF

Eviews University Edition Version

EViews version 8 or more recent will work for this class. You can obtain EViews 11 University Edition at $49.95 USD from here.

gretl Open-source Software

This is an open-source (free) software that should work for most of the material we will cover in class. This is an alternative for those of you who what to additionally practice with other software. However, keep in mind that the computer output in the exams and during lectures will only be fully explained in Eviews. For more details about gretl, click here.

Assignments

All assignments are due at the beginning of the lecture.

	Main File	Related Dataset	Due date	Solutions
Assignment 1	PDF		Thursday, September 26	PDF
Assignment 2	PDF	EViews (zipped) MS Excel	Tuesday, October 8	PDF
Assignment 3	PDF		Thursday, November 14	PDF
Assignment 4	PDF		Monday, December 9 (at 3:30 pm)	PDF

 

Mock Exam

	Main PDF File
Mock Exam 1	PDF

 

Class Notes and Computer Handouts

These computer handouts were prepared to be part of the material presented in class. The goal is to have short and straight to the point examples and exercises to help you master the material. To avoid having long documents they may not be self contained and are not a substitute for your class notes.

	Main File	Related Dataset
Class Notes	PDF File	Passengers (zipped) Unemployment (zipped) Canadian Employment (zipped) Temperatures (zipped) Housing (zipped)
Computer Handout 1	EViews Basics	MS Excel File
Computer Handout 2	gretl Basics
Computer Handout 3	Estimating a Regression Equation	EViews (zipped) gretl (zipped) MS Excel
Computer Handout 4	In-sample Forecast	EViews (updated) (zipped) gretl (updated) (zipped) MS Excel
Computer Handout 5	Importance of Graphics for Forecasting	EViews (zipped) gretl (zipped) MS Excel
Computer Handout 6	Modeling and Forecasting Trend	EViews (zipped) gretl (zipped) MS Excel
Computer Handout 7	Modeling and Forecasting Seasonality	EViews (zipped) gretl (zipped) MS Excel
Computer Handout 8	Characterizing Cycles	EViews (zipped) gretl (zipped) MS Excel
Computer Handout 9	MA, AR and ARMA Models	EViews (zipped) gretl (zipped) MS Excel
Computer Handout 10	Forecasting Cycles	EViews (zipped) gretl (zipped) MS Excel
Computer Handout 11	Forecasting with Trend, Seasonal, and Cyclical Components	EViews (zipped) gretl (zipped) MS Excel
Computer Handout 12	Vector Autoregressions	EViews (zipped) gretl (zipped) MS Excel

 

Forecasting Problem

 

 

More on Forecasting

(graciously contributed by three students, click on the picture to enlarge)